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ERCL研究文章|利用类比法预测英国未来热浪的变化

18 10月 2024 gabriels

The intensity and frequency of extreme heat events is increasing due to climate change, resulting in a range of societal impacts. In this paper, we use temporal analogues to analyse how past UK heatwave events, such as during the summer of 1923, may change if they were to occur under different global warming scenarios. We find that the six most intense early heat events are caused by circulation patterns similar to that of 1923, which can cause intense heat over the UK and parts of NW Europe. Circulation analogues for the 1923 heatwave are also linked to intense heat events in the future, although not all analogues are anomalously hot. At 4 °C of global warming, mean summer temperatures in England over the duration of the 1923 heatwave are between 4.9 and 6.4 degrees warmer than pre-industrial levels across the three models used. At that global mean warming level, future heat events with similar circulation as 1923 over England are estimated to be on average 6.9 °C–10.7 °C hotter than those at pre-industrial levels. Exploring how the intensity of events similar to past events may change in the future could be an effective risk communication tool for adaptation decision making, particularly if past events are stored in society’s memory, for example, due to high impacts.

文章介绍

Using analogues to predict changes in future UK heatwaves

Emma L Yule, Gabriele C Hegerl, Andrew Schurer, Andrew Ballinger and Ed Hawkins

通讯作者：

Emma L Yule，英国爱丁堡大学

期刊介绍

Environmental Research: Climate

Environmental Research: Climate（ERCL）是一本多学科、开放获取的期刊，致力于解决有关物理科学的重要挑战以及气候系统和全球变化的评估，并在影响/未来风险、复原力、环境减缓、环境适应、环境安全和最广泛意义上的解决方案方面进行努力。我们鼓励所有的研究方法，包括定性、定量、实验、理论和应用方法。