ERCL特刊征稿|基于气候变化的巨灾模型支持气候风险管理

特刊详情

客座编辑

• Frances Moore，美国加利福尼亚大学
• Chia-Ying Lee，美国哥伦比亚大学
• Kelly Hereid，美国利宝相互保险公司
• James Done，美国大学大气研究联合会

主题范围

Extreme weather events can cause loss of life, disruptions of communities and livelihoods, and extensive property damage. Changes in several extreme weather phenomena – from wildfires, to severe storms, to tropical cyclones, to extreme heat and drought – have been attributed to anthropogenic climate change and it is likely that the frequency and severity of these events will continue to change in the future. The recognition that past experience of weather extremes may be insufficient to characterize present risk, nor serve as a baseline for future risk, is increasingly well-recognized. Many organizations across the public and private sectors are urgently seeking to integrate information on current and future weather risk, including anthropogenic climate change effects, into their decision-making.

Managing the risks of extreme weather events under a changing climate requires particular modeling capabilities that include:

• Process-informed and statistically robust representation of weather hazards and their relationships with climatological variables.
• Realistic, comprehensive characterization of extremes, not just central tendencies
• Assessment of social, structural, and economic vulnerabilities, and event impacts (e.g. lives lost, people displaced, properties destroyed or financial losses)
• Provision of usable probabilistic information
• Model skill at the spatial resolution and time-scales relevant for decision-making

These capabilities are distinct from those required to support global climate negotiations and guide emissions targets – historically the primary policy application of global climate models. Instead many of these capabilities are being developed in the field of catastrophe modeling, largely within the private sector. While there is an increasing body of studies on assessing non-stationary hazards, methodologies to best integrate information on anthropogenic climate change with the functionality of catastrophe models are not well-developed. This limits our capability to support the broad array of climate risk management decisions that society must undertake.

This focus issue invites manuscripts broadly relevant to these questions. Topics could include (but are not limited to) evaluation of models for risk-management applications, integrating non-stationarity into hazard, vulnerability, and impact modeling, intersections with risk management decision-making, and institutional questions on the provision of public-facing climate-risk information.

投稿流程

特刊文章与ERCL期刊常规文章遵循相同的审稿流程和内容标准，并采用同样的投稿模式。

有关准备文章及投稿的详细信息，可以参阅IOPscience页面的作者指南。

作者可登入期刊主页进行在线投稿，在“文章类型”中选择“特刊文章”，并在“选择特刊”的下拉框中选择“Climate-Change Informed Catastrophe Modeling to Support Climate Risk Management”。

投稿截止日期：2025年1月31日。