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ERCL研究文章|基于全耦合地球系统模型模拟的未来甲烷：预设温室气体浓度与动态交互式甲烷源和汇的对比

15 5月 2025 gabriels

We have used the NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) Earth system model GISS-E2.1 to study the future budgets and trends of global and regional CH₄ under different emission scenarios, using both the prescribed GHG concentrations as well as the interactive CH₄ sources and sinks setup of the model, to quantify the model performance and its sensitivity to CH₄ sources and sinks. We have used the Current Legislation (CLE) and the maximum feasible reduction (MFR) emission scenarios from the ECLIPSE V6b emission database to simulate the future evolution of CH₄ sources, sinks, and levels from 2015 to 2050. Results show that the prescribed GHG version underestimates the observed surface CH₄ concentrations during the period between 1995 and 2023 by 1%, with the largest underestimations over the continental emission regions, while the interactive simulation underestimates the observations by 2%, with the biases largest over oceans and smaller over the continents. For the future, the MFR scenario simulates lower global surface CH₄ concentrations and burdens compared to the CLE scenario, however in both cases, global surface CH₄ and burden continue to increase through 2050 compared to present day. In addition, the interactive simulation calculates slightly larger O₃ and OH mixing ratios, in particular over the northern hemisphere, leading to slightly decreased CH₄ lifetime in the present day. The CH₄ forcing is projected to increase in both scenarios, in particular in the CLE scenario, from 0.53 W m⁻² in the present day to 0.73 W m⁻² in 2050. In addition, the interactive simulations estimate slightly higher tropospheric O₃ forcing compared to prescribed simulations, due to slightly higher O₃ mixing ratios simulated by the interactive models. While in the CLE, tropospheric O₃ forcing continues to increase, the MFR scenario leads to a decrease in tropospheric O₃ forcing, leading to a climate benefit. Our results highlight that in the interactive models, the response of concentrations are not necessarily linear with the changes in emissions as the chemistry is non-linear, and dependent on the oxidative capacity of the atmosphere. Therefore, it is important to have the CH₄ sources and chemical sinks to be represented comprehensively in climate models.

文章介绍

Future CH₄ as modelled by a fully coupled Earth system model: prescribed GHG concentrations vs. interactive CH₄ sources and sinks

Ulas Im, Kostas Tsigaridis, Susanne Bauer, Drew Shindell, Dirk Olivié, Simon Wilson, Lise Lotte Sørensen, Peter Langen and Sabine Eckhardt

通讯作者：

Ulas Im，丹麦奥胡斯大学

期刊介绍

Environmental Research: Climate

Environmental Research: Climate（ERCL）是一本多学科、开放获取的期刊，致力于解决有关物理科学的重要挑战以及气候系统和全球变化的评估，并在影响/未来风险、复原力、环境减缓、环境适应、环境安全和最广泛意义上的解决方案方面进行努力。我们鼓励所有的研究方法，包括定性、定量、实验、理论和应用方法。