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ERL研究文章|2015-2022年中国近地表NO2浓度加速下降的人为驱动因素

01 Jun 2026 gabriels

China has experienced accelerated decline in surface NO₂ concentrations under the condition of steady reduction in NO_x emissions over the past decade, but the reasons for such a nonlinear response in the changes of surface NO₂ to reduction in NO_x emissions remain unexplored. Through integration of measurements, a chemical transport model (GEOS-Chem), and a random forest (RF) model, we comprehensively quantified the contributions of emissions, meteorology, and chemical transformation to the observed trend in surface NO₂ during 2015–2022. After removing meteorological influences using the RF model, the anthropogenically-driven tendency was estimated to be −0.36 ppb y−1 for 2015–2018 (observed tendency: −0.09 ppb y−1) and −1.23 ppb y−1 for 2019–2022 (observed tendency: −1.00 ppb y−1), confirming the dominant role of anthropogenic drivers. Supported by long-term satellite measurements and GEOS-Chem model sensitivity simulations, we attributed this accelerated decline in surface NO₂ to the shift in emission sectors from power plants to transportation and industry after 2018. In addition to emissions, we demonstrated that the increased atmospheric oxidation capacity (i.e. higher ozone) played a key role in shifting NO₂ production from ozone-limited to NO-limited conditions, thereby making NO₂ concentration more sensitive to NO_x emission reductions. Further, measurement interference from oxidized nitrogen species for observing NO₂ can also contribute to the observed decline in surface NO₂, and its contribution doubled from 2015–2018–2019–2022. Our results elucidate the nonlinear response of the trend in surface NO₂ to reduction in NO_x emissions, and highlight the importance of understanding rapid changes in sectoral emissions and the chemical radicals in relation to future NO₂ controls.

文章介绍

Anthropogenic drivers of the accelerated decline in surface NO₂ over China during 2015–2022Minglong Tang, Ke Li, Zhenze Liu, Xi Chen, Yufen Wang, Jianbing Jin, Lei Chen and Hong Liao

客座编辑：

李柯，南京信息工程大学

期刊介绍

Environmental Research Letters

2024年影响因子：5.6 Citescore: 11.1
Environmental Research Letters（ERL）以金色开放获取模式出版，作者可选择将原始数据作为补充资料与文章一起发表。所有研究人员可以免费获取这些研究成果。ERL汇聚了关注环境变化及其应对的研究团体和政策制定团体的意见，涵盖了环境科学的所有方面，出版研究快报、综述文章、观点和社论。ERL顺应了环境科学的跨学科发表的趋势，反映了该领域相关的方法、工具和评估战略，得到了来自不同领域的广泛贡献。